Automation, AI and the Future of Work

Fears that machines will destroy jobs are old. Between 1811 and 1816, English textile workers called Luddites smashed machines they blamed for lowering wages and skills. In 1930 the economist John Maynard Keynes predicted 'technological unemployment' but also expected rising living standards. Historically, automation has eliminated some jobs while creating new ones, though transitions can be painful for affected workers and regions.

The economist James Bessen found that after ATMs spread in the United States, the number of bank tellers did not fall for decades, because cheaper branches led banks to open more of them. Estimates of future automation vary widely: a 2013 study by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne suggested about 47% of US jobs were at high risk, while a 2016 OECD analysis estimated about 9% across member countries. Debates continue about retraining, social safety nets and how gains from automation should be shared.