Reading a Weather Forecast

Lab Brief #2

🎯 Your mission

Run the experiment. Find out what really happens.

⚡ The twist

Weather isn't random — it's just complicated.

What you'll learn

A forecast combines temperature, chance of rain, wind speed and direction. The percentage is not how hard it will rain but how likely rain is anywhere in that area, which is why a 40% forecast often means a dry afternoon.

Key words

forecast
A prediction of the weather, made from current measurements and past patterns.
probability of precipitation
The chance that measurable rain falls somewhere in the forecast area.

Make a hypothesis first

Before you observe: what shape will it leave?

Say your guess out loud — then find out if you were right.

Get ready

🧰 What you need

notebook
thermometer

⚠️ Safety first

Have an adult check your set-up before you start, and tidy everything away afterwards.

Step 1 of 4 · Read

Think about what you just learned: say what "forecast" and "probability of precipitation" mean in your own words before you start.

Step 2 of 4 · Do

Record the forecast for your area each morning for a week and the actual weather each evening. Count how many days matched and work out the forecast's success rate.

Step 3 of 4 · Observe

Record what actually happened, including anything that did not match what you expected.

Step 4 of 4 · Record

Write a conclusion that answers the question this lesson opened with, and state your uncertainty.

Question 1 of 2

A 40% chance of rain means rain is:

How sure are you?😐 maybe

Question 2 of 2

Wind on a forecast is given as speed and:

How sure are you?😐 maybe

Mind = blown

🌊 The deepest part of the ocean is deeper than Mount Everest is tall.

Nice work!

You got 0 of 2 right.

All lessons

🎯

Next Smart Experiment

We'll pick an experiment that matches exactly how you're thinking right now.

✨ More to explore

🌍 Where you see this in real life: This is shaping the ground you walk on, slowly, every single day.

🏆 Stretch challenge (try it this week): Find a rock outside and try to guess how old it is.

👨‍👩‍👧 For the dinner table: “What's the slowest change you can think of?”

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