Rising Expectations and the J-Curve

Why do revolutions often break out when conditions are improving rather than at their worst? In The Old Regime and the Revolution (1856), Alexis de Tocqueville observed that the most dangerous moment for a bad government is usually when it begins to reform, and that France had been growing more prosperous before 1789. In 1962 the sociologist James C. Davies proposed a 'J-curve': revolutions are likely when a long period of rising expectations is followed by a sharp reversal, opening a gap between what people expect and what they get.

Ted Robert Gurr's Why Men Rebel (1970) developed this as 'relative deprivation'. These theories help explain the role of bread prices in 1789 and wartime shortages in 1917. Critics note that frustration is common while revolutions are rare, so psychology alone cannot explain when unrest turns into revolution.